State Reforms: How Many German States Should We Have?

Priwall Beach, located west of the former East and West German border at Travemunde. Photo taken in October 2013

Since 3rd October, 1990, the Federal Republic of Germany has been in existence, featuring the states of the former West Germany and those of East Germany (or better known as the German Democratic Republic). This includes the largest state, Bavaria, which is as big as the entire state of Iowa but is also the richest of the 16 states. We also have Baden-Wurttemberg and Hesse, two of the most populous states and known as the hot spots for jobs. Then we have the former East German States of Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringia, Brandenburg, and Mecklenburg-Pommerania. And lastly, we have the city-states of Hamburg, Bremen and Berlin, the third of which is the nation’s capital. Then we have Saarland, one of the poorest states in the union and the source of the recent proposal brought forth by Minister Annagret Kramp-Karrenbauer. Her proposal: to reduce the number of states to six to eight instead of the original 16 states. The source: The Solidarity Pact, which runs out in less than five years.

To summarize: the Solidarity Pact, signed into law in 1990, required that the rich states, namely in case, Bavaria, Hesse and Baden-Wurttemberg to provide financial support to the other German states, to ensure that the states can be provided with enough capital to survive and avoid a financial disaster, similar to what we saw with the Great Crisis six years ago in the US and the EU. Yet Hesse and Bavaria do not want to carry the burden of these states anymore and with Saarland having the highest debt of any state in Germany, it is not surprising that Kramp-Karrenbauer is proposing such measures, one that is deemed radical and absurd among conservatives, especially in Bavaria, but given the trend in the European Union with states giving up more of their autonomy for a rather transparent one, it is not a surprise. This is especially given the attempts of states to cooperate together to consolidate their resources.

Let’s look at the former East Germany, for example. Since 2004, consolidation in the private sector as well as cooperation within public sector has been under development. This includes the merger of the health care insurance provider AOK in Thuringia, Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt, as well as cooperation and consolidation attempts among academic institutions at the universities in these three states. Furthermore, cooperation between Berlin and the state of Brandenburg in the private and public sectors have resulted in ideas and ways to integrate the capital into Brandenburg. Even a referendum was put up to a vote, which was rejected by Berliners and Brandenburgers alike.  In both examples, it is clear that because of the substantial demographic changes that have been witnessed since German Reunification in 1990, combined with poor job market possibilities that the long-term goal is to consolidate the states into one entity. That means Berlin would belong to Brandenburg and thus lose its city-state status, yet it would still be the national and state capital, a double-task that is not welcomed by many in both areas. As for the other states, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia would become Mitteldeutschland, with either Leipzig or Dresden being the capital and the other “former” state capitals becoming the seats of the districts. This concept is also not welcomed by many in these regions because of the potential to lose thousands of jobs in the consolidation process, combined with the closing of several institutions in the public sector. Attempts have already been tried with the university system in these three states, which were met with protests in the tens of thousands.

But the problems do not lie just in the Berlin-Brandenburg area, let alone the Mitteldeutschland area. The attractiveness of the states of Bavaria, Baden-Wurrtemberg and Hesse has resulted in a shift in population and businesses to these regions from areas in northern and eastern Germany, thus causing a strain in the social resources available in both areas. Northern states are battling high unemployment and social problems, whereas southern states are struggling to keep up the demand for housing.  While the Solidarity Pact has had its advantages, especially in the eastern part of Germany, where cities like Halle (Saale), Leipzig, Dresden, Erfurt and Berlin have undergone a major transformation from becoming run-down Communist cities to modern cities with historic nostalgia (reliving the days before Hitler took power and brought Germany to a blazing inferno known as World War II), there is still work to be done in terms of dealing with problems of unemployment, influx of immigration and the struggles to accommodate people, attracting jobs for all and improving education standards in school as well as in the university. The solidarity pact was a good project, but with states on both sides of the former Cold War border struggling to relieve the burden of debt and social problems, Kramp-Karrenbauer’s plan just might be that remedy Germany really needs. With less autonomy because of its interwoven policies of the European Union, there is really no need for all 16 states to function individually, receiving money from the rich states in order to survive.

This leads to the question of how to consolidate the German states. As it would be absurd to give up its city-state status, Berlin should remain an individual entity, receiving its funding from all the German states, but being ruled by the federal government- not the city government itself. It has been done in Washington, DC, as well as Monaco and Singapore. Losing its city-state status would be as preposterous as Washington becoming part of either Maryland or Virginia. James Madison and his forefathers would rise from their graves and make sure that proposal would never happen. So, as Germans would say it: “Finger weg vom Berlin!” As for Hamburg and Bremen, their financial and social woes have put a strain on their resources in general. Hence a merger with another German state would be both inevitable and beneficial.

But how to consolidate the other states is very difficult because the financial resources lie in the south and west of Germany. Henceforth it is impossible to anchor the rich states with the poor ones, with the possible exceptions of Bavaria merging with Saxony and Thuringia, Hesse merging with North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony and Baden Wurttemberg merging with Saarland and Rhineland Palatinate.  That would still leave the problem with Schleswig-Holstein, the three German city-states, and the remaining states that had once been part of East Germany because no financial beneficiaries would be found to govern the region. Therefore anchoring the rich with the poor is out of the question.  Also out of the question would be the old historic borders, where we have one large state of Saxony (instead of Upper, Lower and Anhalt Saxony), Thuringia becomes part of Bavaria, North Rhine-Westphalia takes over Rhineland Palatinate and Saarland, and Baden Wurrtemberg takes Hesse. Financially, the equilibrium would point clearly to the fourth region proposed here, thus putting the others at a mere disadvantage.  Ideally would be to combine geography and finances so that the equilibrium is firmly established and everyone would benefit from it. That means, instead of having 16 states, one could see three giant German states and Berlin having its own district.  While this proposal would be even more radical than that of Kramp-Karrenbauer’s, given the current situation in Germany, this alignment may be inevitable as financial and domestic problems as a result of lack of resources come to a head in 20 years at the most.

Here’s one of the proposal that should be considered:

Süddeutschland: Consisting of Bavaria, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringia and Brandenburg. Capital would have to be in the central part of the new state, such as Erfurt, Leipzig or Nuremberg. Munich would have its own city-state status.

Norddeutschland: Consisting of Hesse, Lower Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein, Mecklenburg-Pommerania, Hamburg and Bremen. Capital should be located in Hamburg, Hannover or Lübeck. Frankfurt would keep its financial headquarters in tact.

Westdeutschland: Consisting of Baden-Wurttemberg the states along the Rhine, including Saarland. Capital would be in Cologne. Stuttgart would be one of the district capitals along with Mannheim/Ludwigshafen, Freiburg im Breisgau, Coblence and Saarbrücken.

One can go with Kramp-Karrenbauer’s proposal of 6-8 states, but it should be noted that if two states consolidate, one should be the stronger one supporting the weaker one(s) but as long as the resources are pooled and the people will benefit from the merger. The last option would be to abolish all 16 states and have one Germany which has control over the entire country. This may be too communistic for the taste of many people, and some people may compare this to the period of the Third Reich. But with Germany being more and more part of the European Union, that option may also be brought onto the table in German Parliament.

But to sum up, the idea of having less German states is the most viable option in order for the German states to remain healthy. Kramp-Karrenbauer’s idea may sound absurd, but it may become inevitable as Germany becomes more integrated into the EU, which may be more of a blessing than a curse. The question is how to redraw the bounderies. What do you think? Should Germany be reduced in half? Perhaps in three giant states? How would you redraw the boundaries of the Bundesrepublik? Share your thoughts here as well as in the Files’ facebook pages and help Kramp-Karrenbauer push her agenda to the politicians in Berlin keeping in mind the risks and benefits the proposals may bring.

BUGA- The German Garden and Horticulture Show 2011: Koblenz

(Written as a co-column with sister column The Bridgehunter’s Chronicles)

A Cathedral in the midst of flowers and flora

People take pride in gardening, a pastime where they plant whatever they want, make their houses and apartments attractive enough for others to admire and envy, and present their prized product at various competitions at the local, state, and even national level, be it at a local festival or a county or state fair. Gardening provides people with a chance to enjoy the great outdoors, meet new people and be creative, no matter how.

In Germany, this is especially noticeable despite the close quarters residents have to endure. While private property in Germany may be a quarter of the size of that of the US on average and the majority of the population live in apartments and duplexes, the people there treat gardening like it is sacred, and experiment with various plants and vegetation even if they originate from places far away. And when it comes to an event like the German Garden and Horticulture Show (a.k.a. BUGA), people flock there to see the finest plants and vegetation from all over the world.

Founded in 1951, the event takes place every two years and serves as a trio function. The first is to encourage cities and regions to spruce up their land and cityscapes and make it attractive for people visiting or wanting to live there. The second is to provide additional income for the tourism industry and encourage the areas to use it to improve areas for people to see. And lastly, environmentally speaking, it provides people with an opportunity to showcase how the host cities/regions make their landscapes more energy efficient and environmentally safe. An example of how these theories come into practice is the 2007 BUGA in Gera and Ronneburg in eastern Thuringia, where the former lead mine near the latter host town was converted to a large park with lots of vegetation for people to enjoy. The city of Gera reshaped itself from a run-down former Communist town into one that presented a classic example of how history and modernization harmonize with each other with renovated ornamental buildings, former East German buildings being reused for recreational purposes and a revamped infrastructure which featured two new train stations and several new bridges along the White Elster River, including the Textima Suspension Bridge at Hofwiesen Park Park and the Dragon’s Tail Bridge near Ronneburg.

For the city of Koblenz, this year’s BUGA is a special one for the community of over 106,000 inhabitants. Established between 18 and 10 BC,  the city is home to the German Corner (Deutsches Eck), where the Rhein and the Mosel Rivers meet. This is the site where the city center was created by the Teutonic Order in 1218, and the statue of Kaiser Wilhelm I. was created in 1897 and reestablished again in 1993 after he was knocked off his horse during World War II.  There is the old town with many churches and buildings dating back to the Renaissance- almost all of which have been restored and are livelier than ever before. The Ehrenbreitstein castle, located on the east end of the Rhein opposite the city provides tourists with awesome views of the city and the deep river valley, known as the main corridor for shipping traffic between the Alps in northern Switzerland and the mouth at the North Sea near Rotterdam in the Netherlands. The newly restored castle with its large gardens is one of the largest castles to be seen along the mega-river.  All three of these areas were the venue of the flower and horticultural exhibits with the Ehrenbreitstein and the old town hosting multicultural events held almost every day between April and the weekend of 16 October.  Koblenz is the first city in Rheinland-Palatinate to host the 30th biannual event, even though it is the third largest city in the state behind Trier and Mainz (the state’s capital).

Yet if one is not interested in the large garden display with observation deck at Ehrenbreitstein, the flower garden at Deutsche Eck or some of the culture events occurring in the city center, there is plenty to do and see while in Koblenz. Take for instance the tour of the castles  along the Rhein and Mosel Rivers, for example. One can take a 2-3 hour boat trip to see the likes of the Marksburg and Stolzenfels along the Rhein and the Thurant and Metternich  along the Mosel while at the same time, enjoy a typical Rheinland-Palatinate meal and a Königsberger beer, locally brewed at the company just outside the city. This is one of the things that one must do; especially when the weather is schizophrenic like it was during the visit recently. And while there may be some people who want to crash the party while intoxicated, like it was the case during the boat tour, the trip with the wild breeze hollowing through the Rhein is worth every minute of the trip, together with a little bit of brain food on the history of the region.

Doing some comparison between this year’s BUGA and that of 2007 in Gera and Ronneburg, one can see stark contrasts with regards to the city and landscapes and the way the government on the local level worked to bring the BUGA to their venues.  Gera and Ronneburg for the most part was built from the ground up with some places being rebuilt to look more attractive for the tourists.  The park near Ronneburg used to be the site of the former lead mining facility which emitted harmful fumes in the air and whose chemicals seeped into the ground water, causing pollution never before imagined, and cutting short the lives of thousands of workers and those living in surrounding areas by up to 30% because of various forms of cancer and other respiratory diseases. It took more than 15 years and hundreds of millions of Euros to clean up the facility and convert the area into a place of recreation not only for the BUGA but afterwards. This included turning areas that were altered through strip-mining into artificial valleys filled with plants and wildlife, which support the creek going past the former site and into Ronneburg. Three bridges were constructed in and around the areas, two of which span the newly built valley including the Dragon’s Tail Pedestrian Bridge, one of the longest in the state of Thuringia.

With this year’s BUGA, it represents a mirror reflection to the one in 2007 as the infrastructure and the architecture of Koblenz has already been provided. It is more of the question of making a name for itself and bringing out the best in the city and its heritage.  Up to 500 million Euros (or $710 million) was spent sprucing up the city center and Ehrenbreitstein Castle by renovating the buildings, redesigning the streets to make it more pedestrian friendly and in cases, like the castle on the hill of the Rhine, rebuild in many places so that the guests can ooh and aah at the city and the river valley from up above. There was little need to renovate the train station, like in Gera and Ronneburg, and there was no need to build new bridges as the existing ones serve traffic over the Rhine and Mosel, including the Balduin Bridge, a stone arch bridge over the Mosel that has been in service since the 14th Century.  As a bonus, a cable car line runs from the Deutsche Eck directly over the Rhine and up to Ehrenbreitstein.  As a finish product of all the renovating that was done to the city, one will be amazed at the beauty the city has to offer, not only on the outside but also on the inside. While one will find the likes of the Residential Palace, the Church of our Lady and the city center of Münzplatz inspiring on the outside, one will feel like walking into the city’s past and seeing what the city was like in the Renaissance Age, even though much of the city was in fact severely damaged and destroyed in many parts during World War II.

When the 2011 BUGA ends during the weekend of October 14-16,  all the newly renovated places will become the care of the local government, whose responsibility will be to upkeep them and prevent them from becoming something similar to the prairie flower “Hour of Fame.” This means that the places that have been newly established from the old or constructed from scratch must be maintained in order to prevent negligence and vandalism. The difficult part about this task is the financing for the maintenance of these places. This is one problem that Gera and Ronneburg have with the park with the Dragon’s Tail Bridge, as attempts to sell it to private groups have failed up to now due to lack of funds and interest from the tourist. The future of the place at the moment is in doubt.  What the city of Koblenz must avoid is following a path similar to what happened as a result of the “BUGA-Hangover-Effect.” The difference between the two venues is clear and works to Koblenz’s advantage quite well. Tourism is well-established in the city thanks to its heritage and its proximity to the Rhine and Mosel Rivers and the places that are offered within spitting distance of the city. Also helpful to the city is the fact that events like the Christmas Market (which takes place from 18 November to 22 December this year) will draw in more tourists and revenue, which means more flexibility in terms of keeping the places clean and looking like they were during the BUGA.  This is something that is still being worked on in Gera and Ronneburg, as the venues are looking for ways out of two problems that they have at the moment- reshaping the city and landscapes and population loss as many people are emigrating away from the region for better job prospects. Both of these have resulted in the loss of revenue that is badly needed.

While Koblenz will be left to run its course, the next two BUGAs in Germany will be in the northern parts of the country. In 2013 the event will take place in Hamburg. It will be the fourth time the city hosts the event (the last one being in 1973 ), but the city of 1.5 million inhabitants- the second  largest city and  city-state in the country- is transforming itself both architecturally as well as infrastructurally, from an industrial port to one which holds character regarding its heritage as well as one that is working on becoming a carbon neutral city, like Copenhagen. Already the International Building Expo has been working on reshaping the cityscape of the city center known as Hafen City and its southern suburb of Wilhelmsburg, with the goal of having the area ready to take on many garden-lovers and environmentalists in two-years’ time. After that event, it moves southeast to the Havel region in the state of Brandenburg in 2015. That region is rich with forests and lakes, and with Berlin and Potsdam located nearby, people will have more than what they bargained for with this year’s BUGA in Koblenz.

There are many ways to look at the BUGA this year and how Koblenz has benefitted from it. Given its location and its heritage, the city benefitted from the surge of tourists and revenue, which can be used for future projects. The city has already taken advantage of the event by showcasing its finest plants and flowers, while presenting the treasures of the city- the old town (with its churches and the Residential Palace, the Deutsche Eck, and the Ehrenbreitstein Castle to those who want to see it. And for those like yours truly and the people who accompanied me on the trip, the incentive is there to see the region again, while at the same time, see if Hamburg and the Havel region can copy the successes displayed by this year’s BUGA in Koblenz. We will have to see when travelling to the next one.

FLENSBURG FILES FAST FACTS:

  1. While at Ehrenbreitstein Castle, there was a showcase on forests in Germany and the facts are rather interesting to note. Despite being just a tad bit bigger than Thuringia and smaller than Hesse, Rheinland-Palatinate is tied with Hesse with the largest percentage of forests existing in the state with 42%. Bavaria comes in third with 36% and Thuringia with 23%. Schleswig-Holstein is last with only 10%, which also ranks it second to last if one includes the three city-states (Bremen has only 5%).
  2. Interesting Facts about Koblenz’s places of interest- The Ehrenbreitstein was first built in 1000 AD, extended while under the control of the Archbishops of Trier 20 years later, destroyed by the French in 1801 after a long siege, and rebuilt massively using its original foundations in 1816-32. Much of the castle was rebuilt after World War II which includes three new additions, one of which houses an eatery. Apart from the beautiful courtyard, the castle today holds two museums (Rhein and the state) and hosts numerous events both inside as well as outside at the amphitheater.

 

Just south of the city there is the Stolzenfels Castle, which was built in the 13th Century. Napoleon I donated the ruins to the city in 1802, which then gave it to King Friedrich Wilhelm IV of Prussia in 1823. It was rebuilt under his control from 1836 to 1842. Much of the castle was rebuilt using the design from the one built in the 13th Century but was destroyed during Napoleon’s siege of the city in 1801.

 

The Residential Palace overlooking the Rhein was the last building that was contructed before the French Revolution, as it was built for the last Prince-Elector of Trier from 1777 to 1786. It was completely destroyed during World War II but was rebuilt from scratch in 1951. Most of the public offices are now housed here today. Distinctive of the palace is the beautiful court facing the city (was filled with flowers and a beautiful pool) and the promenade facing the river to the east, where a statue of Josef Görres (1776-1823), a prominent Koblenzer overlooks the river. Görres was an elementary school teacher, writer for the city’s newspaper, and a philosopher.

A Link to Koblenz’s bridges and its association with the BUGA 2011 can be found here: http://thebridgehunter.areavoices.com/2011/10/28/buga-the-german-garden-and-horticulture-show-2011-koblenz-and-the-citys-bridges/

Photo gallery:

Ready, Set, Water!

 

Koblenz Old Town

 

Löhrstrasse Shopping Corridor

 

Münzplatz at night

 

"Die Tafel" Long Table at the front gardens of the Residential Palace

 

Pool at the Residential Palace

 

Residential Palace

 

Flowers at the Residential Palace

 

Pool of flowers at the front court of the Residential Palace

 

St. Kantor Basilica

 

Statue of Josef Görre at the Residential Palace

 

Stolzenfels Castle

 

Marksburg Castle at Braubach

 

Colorful array of flowers at Ehrenbreitstein Castle

 

Colorful array of flowers at Ehrenbreitstein Castle

 

Cactus exhibit at Ehrenbreitstein Castle

 

Tomato display at the greenhouse at Ehrenbreitstein Castle

 

Overview of Koblenz from Ehrenbreitstein Castle

 

Liebfrauenkirche from Ehrenbreitstein Castle

 

The outer walls of Ehrenbreitstein Castle

 

The old and new sides of Ehrenbreitstein Castle: This was the amphitheater where outdoor events took place

 

Ehrenbreitstein Castle looking east

 

Newly built section of Ehrenbreitstein: Here is where the state museum, food court, and tourist information center are located

 

Deutsche Eck (German Corner): Where the Mosel (above) and the Rhein (below) meet

 

Close-up on a marigould at the west entrance to the Residential Palace

 


 

Berlin Elections 2011: Turning Point in German Politics

The German-named “Superwahljahr 2011” (Super Elections of 2011- if one wants a rough translation) reached its climax on Sunday, as half of the 2.5 inhabitants of the city-state and Germany’s capital of Berlin went to the polls and voted to keep Klaus Wowereit (Social Democrat- SPD) in power as the mayor. His toughest challenge now is to find a new coalition partner that will help govern the city. His party’s coalition partner, the left-wing Linke Party was unable to obtain enough votes to continue the Red-Coalition and therefore, the Social Democrats have the option of having the Greens as a partner to form the common Red-Green coalition, which can be found in states like Rheinland Palatinate, Bremen  and Baden-Wurttemberg (the third state of which brought the state’s first Green prime minister to power). The other option would be to join the Christian Democrats (CDU) to form the Grand Coalition which has dominated the political scene in Germany in states like Mecklenburg Pommerania, Thuringia, and Saxony-Anhalt. Talks began Monday and speculation points to the Red-Green coalition although some issues have to be resolved first in order to ensure that continuity and transparency exists. One of the issues on the table is the extension of the city-autobahn 110 through the southern and easter end of Berlin’s city center The Greens are against the proposal, the SPD are for it.
As for the voting results, the SPD remained a powerful party with 28.5% of the votes, followed by the CDU with 23.4%, the Greens with 17.6%, the Linke with 11.7%, the Pirates Party, a newcomer to the elections with 8.9% and the FDP with 1.8%. The new make-up in the Berlin city senate will consist of 47 seats for the SPD, 39 for the CDU, 29 for the Greens, 19 for the Linke, and 15 for the Pirates.  A pair of notes to point out from the Berlin elections:

 

The end of the FDP?
After recording five losses in a row and losing its presence in the state parliament of Saxony-Anhalt, Bremen, Mecklenburg-Pommerania, Rheinland-Palatinate and Baden-Wurttemberg, the liberal democrats once again failed to reach the 5% hurdle to stay in parliament in Berlin. As a consequence, talks are underway in the German government and within the FDP regarding the party’s future. The party has been marred with scandals this past year (including that involving plagiarism), and the miserable results have led to the resignation of Guido Westerwelle as the head of the party in May. While Philip Röseler, currently Minister of Finance has taken over his place, he has come under fierce fire from his counterparts of the CDU for the party’s lack of direction and the resulting poor performance. With the FDP losing influence, it could spell doom for the Dream Coalition of the CDU-FDP under the direction of Chancellor Angela, who may have to consider early elections in order to find a more suitable coalition partner to lead the country. German elections will take place in 2013 unless early elections push it up to next year, the second time in 7 years that has happened.  Should that be the case and the losses continue to mount, the FDP may disappear from the political landscape within five years, and with it, its campaign for free markets and less regulations.

What is the Pirate Party?
Founded in 2005 and headed by Sebastian Nerz, the Pirate Party has raised some eyebrows among Germans, after it made the 5% hurdle and will make its debut in Berlin’s city parliament. The Pirate Party is the most independent of the common parties serving the country for its campaign platform is simple but down to earth; especially for the younger generations born after 1975. Most of the themes covered during the elections are those that were not discussed thoroughly among the common parties (the main ones dominating the German political landscape). This includes unlimited access to public transportation in Berlin, loosening up of copyright regulations, free internet access for all, improving basic rights among Berliners, and more importantly, reforming the government so that they are transparent and there are no loose ends in the regulations.  These topics have been a major agenda for the party for they feel that they have not been discussed in detail by the government. This is especially true with basic rights, as Nerz mentioned in an interview that some of the laws requiring surveillance and reducing the rights of citizens were not thought through thoroughly nor discussed with the public. Whether the party will be successful or not depends on how Nerz and company will push through their agenda when they enter the city hall for the first time. They have five years to show their true colors and perhaps win the hearts and minds of those who never thought they would take that step.

FLENSBURG FILES FAST FACT:  There are 29 countries that have their own Pirate Party. In Germany alone, apart from having one serving the country, two state pirate parties serve the states of Hesse and Bavaria. In the United States, while there is no official party serving the country, there are two state Pirate parties that exist in Massachusetts and Florida. An international Pirate Party was founded in Brussels, Belgium last year.

 

Links:

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,15399521,00.html

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,15397392,00.html

http://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/nerz102.html

http://www.mdr.de/mdr-info/wahlberlin102_zc-885afaa7_zs-5d851339.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pirate_Parties_International#Pirate_Party_movement_worldwide

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Democratic_Party_%28Germany%29

Green Invasion at the Expense of the Liberals

"Huh? What's that I hear?" Photo taken in December 2010

Politics is like going through a natural cycle: You have two main parties where one party takes over the podium because of a concept that makes sense, only to find that it does not make sense to the public. In the end that party is replaced with the other one- its opposition- because it has a better idea. However it does not please the public, so it is removed in favor of the party they had unseated previously. This badminton match which includes all the grunts, ranting and raving, and political trash talking, continues until another party comes to bring down the political forum with a digger and bulldozer. When this happens, everybody knows about it and runs for cover- even the deer are affected as they are the most sensitive to change and noise and run when they feel change is inevitable.

It is unclear what to make of the recent state elections in Germany, where the Dream Coalition- the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Free Liberals (FDP)- are losing support as rapidly as one loses sand through his own fingers. After being routed in Hamburg on 20th February, failing to overtake the Social Democrats in Rheinland Palatinate, being forced to form the Grand Coalition with its rival party the SPD after losing the majority in Saxony-Anhalt, and being unseated as the majority party of Baden Württemberg after 60 years in power (the last three elections being on 27 March), change is becoming more and more inevitable as a long 2 years is ahead of Chancellor Angela Merkel for two reasons:

1. She lost her right hand politician and potential successor to the throne, Guido Westerwelle on Monday, as he announced that he was stepping down as the head of the FDP after 10 years in power and was not going to step in for Angela Merkel effective immediately. While he will continue on as foreign minister until the next elections in 2013, the opposition and members of his own party are pushing that he resigns from that post as well and leave politics after the poorest showing in the state elections in its history, where the party did not even make the 5% mark in Saxony-Anhalt and Rheinland Palatinate and barely made it over the mark in Baden Württenberg, making him as the scapegoat. While health minister Philipp Rösner, who is of Vietnamese origin and one of the youngest ministers in the German Bundestag, is poised to take over Westerwelle’s duties, a power struggle is inevitable as the Liberals are struggling to find an identity which would be appealing to the voters. This is sensible given the fact that almost two years ago, the party had 11% of the votes in the federal elections, which was enough for the Dream Coalition with the CDU. Before that it was averaging 8-10% of the votes in the state elections.

2. There is a new party that is taking the spotlight away from the two majority parties, the SPD and the CDU, in the form of the Greens. When Winfried Kretschmann takes over as Prime Minister of Baden Württemberg, he will become the first Green Party member to be elected to this post, let alone the first Green to hold a major post since Joschka Fischer was Foreign Minister and Gerhardt Schröder’s vice Chancellor during the years of the Red Green Coalition in Berlin (1998-2005). How Kretschmann, who originates from Sigmarigen near Lake Constance and the co-founder of the Greens in his homestate claimed his post is simple: In the state elections, even though the CDU was able to obtain the majority of the votes with 39%, the Greens got 24.1% of the votes and the SPD got 23.2%. The FDP only got 5.3%. As a result, the SPD and Greens created the Red Green Coalition, making it the majority ruling party. As a general rule, the party with the majority votes in the coalition also nominates the candidate to run the state, which was the Green candidate Kretschmann. While he may not be the next Jesse Ventura ( the professional wrestler who won the governatorial elections inMinnesota as an Independent Party candidate in 1998 and held that post for 4 years), he is the symbol of what could be the Green Revolution, as the party has become clear winners in the state elections thusfar, winning an average of 8% of the parliamentary seats in the four states, a gain of 7%. This includes a 15% gain in Baden Württemberg, 10.8% in Rheinland Palatinate, 3.6% in Saxony Anhalt, and 1.6% in Hamburg. This is in stark contrast to the rest of the parties where they have been losing seats and votes in the last decade, with the FDP taking the brunt of the losses. The reasons for the trend is two fold. First and foremost, in light of the triple disaster in Japan- consisting of the Earthquake, Tsunami which completely obliterated everything in its path in the northeast part of the country, and the Nuclear Disaster at Fukushima which is on the level with Chernobyl in 1986- the party is pushing for the complete phasing out of nuclear power and 100% reliance of renewable energy by 2040. This includes phasing out all nuclear power plants one by one, something that the CDU and FDP have been opposed to even after the disaster in Japan, which has angered many people in Germany and elsewhere. Secondly it wants to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide emmissions by 40% to 1990 levels by 2020, by introducing strict policies to encourage more electric and fuel-efficient cars and introducing other incentives to conserve energy. These are the main reasons to go along with other policies they have involving agriculture and family policies, something that many people are dissatisfied with the current trend by the Dream Coalition.

With three more state elections on the horizon (Berlin, Bremen, and Mecklenburg-Pommerania), the trend is pointing clearly towards the Greens, as the party looks at creating another Red-Green Coalition in Berlin and Bremen with the possibility of having another Green mayor in Bremen and Berlin, which would make history as the first city-states to do that. While the Greens have the votes to do that in Bremen, Berlin is banking on Renate Kunast, a former Agriculture Minister during the Schröder days who is now the minister of nutrition and diet, to pull off the unthinkable, like in Baden Württemberg. As for the Greens in Mecklenburg-Pommerania, the northeasternmost state in Germany, the party is looking at clearing the 5% barrier for the first time in a decade, while finding ways to squelch the most hated Nationalist Party (NPD) in the process. The party had only 3.6% in the last elections of 2006 in comparison to the 7.1% the NPD had.

As for the FDP, they are being looked upon as guidance to help the Grand Coalition through the most difficult times. While Westerwelle is no loner leading the party and may even leave politics, even with a new party leader, some fundamental changes need to take place in order for it to become a credible party. Should it fail to find a platform to attract the voters, there is a danger that the party may lose more than just its identity. It is possible that the FDP may bring down the CDU, thus marking the elections of 2013 as a watershed for the Coalition, as the campaigns of Merkel and company many fall on deaf ears of voters who demand change in the form of a new government, new policies, and a term that is rarely heard of these days in the world of politics, a new set of ethics; especially in light of what happened in Japan with Fukushima and its implications on the energy and environmental policies, touted as one of the best in the modern world, thanks to contributions by the Greens.

Useful Links:

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,14950846,00.html

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,14963869,00.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamburg_state_election,_2011

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saxony-Anhalt_state_election,_2011

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhineland-Palatinate_state_election,_2011

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baden-W%C3%BCrttemberg_state_election,_2011